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    sonicbomb.com :: View topic - UN nuclear watchdog at ‘dead end’ in Iran

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    fastfission
    Cherokee (3.8 mt)


    Joined: Apr 14, 2007
    Posts: 425
    Location: Arzamas-16

    PostPosted: Tue Sep 16, 2008 7:10 am Reply with quote

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1238bd08-8347-11dd-907e-000077b07658.html

    UN nuclear watchdog at ‘dead end’ in Iran

    The United Nations nuclear watchdog declared on Monday that it had reached a “dead end” in its year-long effort to get Iran to clarify whether it covertly researched the development of a nuclear weapon.

    Unveiling one of the most damning reports it has yet published on Iran’s nuclear programme, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had been unable to make “any substantive progress” in its attempt to get Iran to answer allegations that there may have been a military dimension to its nuclear programme.

    In addition, Iran has stepped up the pace of uranium enrichment, which can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons grade material, accumulating more than 300kg of low enriched uranium by the end of last month, according to the report. The vast majority of the material has been produced this year.

    Some analysts say that if Iran accumulated 600kg-700kg of low enriched uranium it would reach “breakout capacity” – the brink of nuclear weapons status – since if such a stockpile were run though Iran’s facilities again, it would provide enough fissile material for one bomb. But IAEA officials argue that considerably more would be needed for a significant nuclear weapon.

    The IAEA also reported that Iran had raised the number of centrifuges enriching uranium by 500 to 3,820 since May and was testing an advanced model able to refine nuclear fuel two to three times faster, in continuing defiance of UN resolutions. A senior IAEA official said that the agency would press ahead with attempts to get Iran to hand over information needed to explain intelligence material showing it had once linked its nuclear programme to the testing of high explosives and to the modification of a missile cone in a way suitable for a nuclear warhead.

    However, in a sign of frustration within the IAEA at Iran’s refusal to co-operate, the official said: “Iran has so far not been forthcoming in replying to our questions and we seem to be at a dead end there.”

    The report is likely to boost the attempts by powers – led by the US , UK and France – who seek a new UN sanctions resolution against Iran later this year.

    However, diplomats say that tension between Russia and the US makes any new round of UN sanctions against Iran unlikely before President George W. Bush leaves office.

    In its report, the IAEA said it believed that Iran’s attempts to build a modified missile cone “may have involved the assistance of foreign expertise”.

    An IAEA official said the agency’s understanding was that the assistance may have come from non-state actors.

    --------------------------------------------


    AQ Khan perhaps?!!

    FF
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    Blake
    Tewa (5 mt)


    Joined: Jun 25, 2007
    Posts: 680
    Location: Florida

    PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:05 am Reply with quote

    Does NK have a capable missle? Could be some assistance there if so, huh?
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    altair7
    Cherokee (3.8 mt)


    Joined: Aug 10, 2007
    Posts: 432
    Location: Monte Bello Islands

    PostPosted: Wed Sep 17, 2008 11:06 pm Reply with quote

    From what I read this site says that intelligence agencies believe North Korea has mastered the technology for mounting a nuclear warhead on its missiles, an assessment that, if correct, means the country could build weapons to threaten Japan and perhaps the western United States.

    If so than they might assist them... perhaps.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/28/politics/28cnd-korea.html?hp&ex=1114747200&en=deaa74eba55d91d1&ei=5094&partner=homepage
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    Graviton
    Yankee (13.5 mt)


    Joined: Sep 03, 2006
    Posts: 1565
    Location: USA

    PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2008 5:10 pm Reply with quote

    altair7 wrote:
    From what I read this site says that intelligence agencies believe North Korea has mastered the technology for mounting a nuclear warhead on its missiles, an assessment that, if correct, means the country could build weapons to threaten Japan and perhaps the western United States.

    If so than they might assist them... perhaps.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/28/politics/28cnd-korea.html?hp&ex=1114747200&en=deaa74eba55d91d1&ei=5094&partner=homepage


    More like copied, from Khan's Black Market instructions bought and paid for.
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    Teller25
    Cherokee (3.8 mt)


    Joined: Aug 22, 2007
    Posts: 254
    Location: Spain

    PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:41 pm Reply with quote

    I really don't believe the goal of any nation is to build "One bomb", so the calculations based on when they will have enough material is always ridiculous, they are not going to war against Israel (maybe the fourth or fifth nuclear power) with one weapon!!

    Having said this, it looks unlikely now that the U.S. will dare to attack Iranian facilities, so it would be a job for the IAF.

    http://web.mit.edu/ssp/Publications/working_papers/wp_06-1.pdf
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    Graviton
    Yankee (13.5 mt)


    Joined: Sep 03, 2006
    Posts: 1565
    Location: USA

    PostPosted: Mon Oct 27, 2008 5:09 pm Reply with quote

    No one said they are explicitly after one bomb. They are seeking an arsenal of nuclear weapons based on some obvious clues.

    Ahmadinejad bragged two years ago of successful Iranian pulsed fusion studies that have only ONE practical use: boosting fission bombs.

    Iran has turned over some nuclear blueprints from Khan's corrupt network. Both Pakistan and India clearly understand the boosting technology.

    Iran is accelerating development of P2 centrifuges that is creating far more enrichment capacity.

    Every nation after USA developing nuclear weapons has been hugely underestimated in capability while disavowing their own nuclear bomb plans:

    * Russia, with Molotov telling the UN that they explicitly had no nuclear bomb plans, as seen in Radio Bikini.

    * China's Mao calling USA a "paper tiger" while emphatically denying his own nuclear bomb plans

    * India AND Pakistan both denying their programs while converting Canadian reactors for India into plutonium sources and Pakistan with their P2 centrifuges.

    * South African codevelopment with Israel

    * Iraqi development where more enrichment milling tools were found buried in the yard of a leading Iraqi nuclear scientist. These were found after Gulf War 2.

    * More ....

    It's bloody naive to make assumptions that Iran is not aggressively seeking nuclear bombs, and willing to drive a politically ruinous Cold War in the Middle East and south Asia.

    Here is another example of Iranian denials suddenly making a turnaround admission after emphatic denial for decades on some issues. This will just as easily happen with nuclear weapons development at a more convenient time.

    Iranian General: Tehran Arming 'Liberation Armies'
    Monday, October 27, 2008

    Associated Press

    TEHRAN, Iran — 

    Iran is supplying weapons to "liberation armies" in the Middle East, a top Revolutionary Guards commander said, offering the first official confirmation the country provides weapons to armed groups in the region.

    Gen. Hossein Hamedani, deputy commander of a volunteer militia that is part of the elite Revolutionary Guards, did not provide specific details in the report on the state-run Borna news. The U.S. military has accused Iran of arming Shiite militias in Iraq, and Iran is widely believed to provide weapons to Lebanon's militant Shiite Hezbollah group.

    "Not only are our armed forces self-sufficient, liberation armies of the region get part of their weapons from us," Hamedani said, according to the report on Borna's Web site late Sunday.

    In the past, Iran — a majority Shiite country — has denied arming Hezbollah, saying it only provided political and financial support. The Iranian government has also denied providing weapons or financial support to Shiite militants fighting U.S. forces in Iraq.

    But the U.S. military has said it has evidence that elements of the Mahdi army, an Iraqi militia loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have been armed by Iran.

    Hamedani also said Iran has no shortage of advanced missile systems.
    "Our chemical engineers have upgraded Iran's missile capability," he was quoted as saying.

    Hamedani didn't elaborate, but Iranian officials have said they successfully tested a solid fuel motor for the medium-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile, a technological breakthrough for Iran.

    Experts say solid fuel increases the accuracy of missiles in reaching targets. But many in the West have expressed doubt about Iran's professed military accomplishments.

    Iran launched an arms development program during its 1980-88 war with Iraq to compensate for a U.S. weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and a fighter plane.
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    Teller25
    Cherokee (3.8 mt)


    Joined: Aug 22, 2007
    Posts: 254
    Location: Spain

    PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:16 pm Reply with quote

    In many articles the popular “material for one bomb” is present, including the one above, Iran is by all sources, not currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, they are obviously aquiring the technical capabilities to do so if they decide to start a nuclear weapons program in the future. However this primitive program poses no threat whatsoever to the U.S. UNLESS thay are planning to invade the country. Although unlikely, it could pose some threat to Israel, but as Jaques Chirac said, an iranian nuclear missile won't lift off before Teheran has already been turned into a giant parking lot by the Isarelis. If Israel still feels threatened they should take care themselves, with their own means, not pressure other countries to resolve the issue, taking in account that the country that feels threatened already posses nuclear weapons and very capable delivery systems.
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    Graviton
    Yankee (13.5 mt)


    Joined: Sep 03, 2006
    Posts: 1565
    Location: USA

    PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 6:14 pm Reply with quote

    Teller25 wrote:
    In many articles the popular “material for one bomb” is present, including the one above, Iran is by all sources, not currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, they are obviously aquiring the technical capabilities to do so if they decide to start a nuclear weapons program in the future. However this primitive program poses no threat whatsoever to the U.S. UNLESS thay are planning to invade the country. Although unlikely, it could pose some threat to Israel, but as Jaques Chirac said, an iranian nuclear missile won't lift off before Teheran has already been turned into a giant parking lot by the Isarelis. If Israel still feels threatened they should take care themselves, with their own means, not pressure other countries to resolve the issue, taking in account that the country that feels threatened already posses nuclear weapons and very capable delivery systems.


    Terribly naive is the simplest way to describe this reply of yours.

    You don't even accept obvious clues that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, adding thousands of more P2 centrifuges as we talk, that they are experimenting in pulsed fusion studies for boosting -- while foreign experts in fusion know they refuse to publish information about this for obvious military use -- and that every nuclear program has been grossly underestimated by others since 1949, when the Russians shocked the UN with their sudden turnaround in having nuclear weapons.

    No, I am not promoting war over this.

    I just want to remind others that the terrible threat is growing.

    Not every nation is as culturally and politically capable as others in dealing with modernization. In fact it devastates African nations:

    http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/9360/Blood_Coltan/

    Watch this.

    Cellphones function with this mineral, only found in Congo, used in
    their electronics.

    Its demand now sparked a Congo war as tribes fight for control of this
    mineral, making it among the most dangerous places to live in the world,
    due to the regular massacres incited by this mineral trade.

    First there are blood diamonds. now there is a lot of blood over cellphones.

    Cellphone users might laugh, in line with typical public media suppression of information about this, but watch for yourselves.

    Watch a nuclear arms race enter Africa. Africans are keen to massacres by obvious evidence presented in modern history.
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    Teller25
    Cherokee (3.8 mt)


    Joined: Aug 22, 2007
    Posts: 254
    Location: Spain

    PostPosted: Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:13 pm Reply with quote

    Although the Iranian regime is hideous, people living outside the Fox News fantasy don’t see an imminent military threat form Iran.



    I’m just saying it is strange how countries with deliverable thermonuclear warheads are worried for a bunch of primitive Iranian centrifuges.

    Even if Iran succeeds in producing fissile materials, a nuclear weapons program would be easily recognized by others,
    and to make their warheads deliverable they are going to need extensive testing, and if after many years if not decades they manage to fit warheads into missiles they would still be vastly outnumbered by Israeli and American conventional and nuclear forces, thus they would be
    unwilling to attack first and commit suicide, not to mention the American (and therefore also Israeli) intelligence is very superior.

    Also remember that Iran’s military budget is less than 1% of the U.S’, they spend about $91 per capita, the lowest figure of the Persian Gulf nations, they won’t have a chance in any war of aggression regardless if they get the bomb or not. If Israel truly believes what they say, they have more than enough weapons to deal with it.




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